Fedcoin: why WLD might surprise you
This might be one of the most bold predictions / thesis I’ve ever written since being in crypto for 7 years. I’ve been wrapping my head around this subject for quite a while and in this article I will
I do want to warn you: if you are going to be an NPC, replying with internet pitchforks, try to consider looking at it from a neutral perspective without any biases.
Crypto and onboarding: why is it so difficult?
Since joining crypto in early 2017 (ethereum was trading at 7 usd) I have seen how this insane unfriendly user experience ecosystem grew over the years. I remember that it was extremely difficult to buy the coin that I wanted as a noob. I had this one friend who made a shitload with XRP and wanted to buy this coin. I had to buy some btc on a shady dutch exchange which had a terrible UI like most exchanges back then. I googled for 2 days how to setup an XRP wallet. I never sent money on the blockchain (didn’t even know what is was lol) so I sent like 20 XRP to that XRP exchange called Gatehub. I had zero idea if it was safe or not but as I fomo’d into it, I still sent my kyc details. As I saw it arrived to my wallet , I sent over the 1k usd worth of XRP over that wallet again. I remember sweating heavily waiting for that XRP to show up (I was a young kid , it was a lot of money for me lol). Thing is, the only tutorial I saw about sending xrp to gate hub was some obscure reddit post and for some reason, I trusted this random guy.
Anyway, in the end, I received the xrp. Later, I wanted to buy other alts (antshares / NEO) on bittrex and buy/sell on etherdelta for all of these ico coins back then. I won’t go into details how it was a pain in the ass to learn how to utilise these platforms as a noob. The point that I’m trying to make, is that years later, I realised how extremely extremely difficult it was to get into crypto which was also the main reason why you could have made life changing money (onboarding difficult = opportunity).
Over the years, we managed to make way better UX and apps. CEX focussed heavily on crypto friendly onboarding experiences to attract most users and obviously attracting retail money during a bullrun.
Even though we are making a good job with trying to find a better way to make dapps more user-friendly in terms of UI (uniswap is easy to use), we still have some big hurdles for onboarding normies to crypto. Most use a CEX and buy their coins there. If you want them to utilise DeFi, it’s impossible, as most don’t even know what metamask. Let alone a DEX. Don’t even mention AAVE.
I believe centralised applications on decentralised systems will be huge the next cycle. Alongside AI. Whether it will be a meme narrative or not (most likely it will , as always), there is a high chance that AI will become one of the many meme narratives. It’s where the world is heading rn and the most famous AI application right now is: chatgpt, an application made by mother company OpenAI.
OpenAI: launch of world coin
OpenAI is a centralised application / company launching a coin on a decentralised network (optimism). As they got a huge funding, backed by huge names (musk, a16z etc.) , there is no doubt that they will have the resources to market their orbs worldwide. We are in a tough spot with the economy in most places. High inflation is screwing the avg Joe. If you think people won’t scan their eyeballs for free money, you clearly don’t understand how NPCs operate. Most will think they already sold their souls in web2 applications with data farms like Facebook / twitter etc. so why not scan eye balls for free money? We have also seen how we live in a mostly atheistic world which means most people submit to being a slave of corporations. People are staying in lines for the newest gadget and it won’t by any different for the orb.
In crypto, the core has a cyberpunk philosophy, we obviously disregard this ‘evil’ technology. It’s written within the culture of crypto itself and stems from the bitcoin white paper. Though it’s a very noble thing, I’m a big advocate of observing reality in the most objective way. And I think that the world we are heading towards to, will be more Black Mirror’isque as we think.
There are some bulletpoints regarding Worldcoin and OpenAI that I want to highlight and summarise before explaining some of them in detail:
CEO Openai = Sam Altman
Biggest AI application known to consumers = chatgpt
Openai = chatgpt + worldcoin + dall E
Openai started in 2015: founded by Sam Altman , Elon Musk , Peter Thiel (Elon Musk left but still donates)
Fully focussed on AI, started with 1 billion usd in capital. In 2019, Microsoft added 1 billion usd on top of it and in 2023 (this year) they announced they will add up to 10 billion (!!) usd on top of it for further research or resources
Chatgpt roughly costs 100k usd a day for operating, AI is a very very expensive technology that will be privileged to the ones that have the money and resources to operate them.
See, like explained in the last bulletpoint, AI can only be fully functional if people keep feeding data to it. Sam Altman clearly found the solution for feeding the system (AI) by releasing chatgpt for free and paying for the request costs. They obviously know that in order to create an AI monopoly, they have to invest a lot right now in order to have a proper AI system in the future.
With Worldcoin, it obviously is just a Ponzi scheme to laser your eyes. Why? Biometric data can feed the AI unique information about humans, that aren’t possible right now. Obviously, you need to incentivise people to feed the data and making it free won’t cut it (like people could with chatgpt as they can utilise the application themselves which isn’t possible with worldcoin app). Giving free printed money out of thin air with the noble idea of universal basic income, is the perfect Ponzi to feed to consumers or people who just want free money in general. Especially in poor developed countries where they don’t have the luxury to say no to 25 usd.
Ok nice story, and now? Why worldcoin
Every cycle, there are 1/2/3 coins that will steal the show out of nowhere. Previous cycle, it was mostly Solana, BNBs, Avax, luna. Solana was the biggest mvp previous cycle imo. It was relatively unknown pre-bullrun and out of nowhere, we had this Sam guy that pumped this coin to gazillions. Solana was suddenly the future. I can absolutely tell you with certainty that every mfer that is shilling Solana now, wasn’t shilling Solana back then. Actually, almost nobody did. And every cycle, the coin that pumps the hardest, is never the coin that was talked the most before the bullrun start.
Worldcoin has this Solana 2019/2020 magic. It has the ingredients to become one of the most biggest coins in this new cycle. Let me highlight my thoughts again, from a traders perspective:
It’s one of the most hated coins right now due to ‘evil tech’ vs cyberpunk crypto culture
Every cycle, there is a new playbook (old coins will pump again but not as much)
Targets normies/npcs rather than crypto traders (aka you)
Very low circulating supply vs total supply. This causes a relatively high fdv which seems to be the consensus reason of people shorting or not willing to buy it.
If you want to buy an openai stock: you can’t. It’s not tradeable.
AI will become likely a meme narrative in crypto and AI coins will moon hard
See, these point are interesting. Bulletpoint 1 and 3 points out that whatever you think about something: it doesn’t matter. Your opinion doesn’t matter. Your bias doesn’t matter. The objective reality is that it will happen and people will orb the fk out of their eyes. It’s the same reason why you likely never wanted to buy safemoon or Shiba Inu but the market doesn’t care as normies flock into and make more money than the avg crypto trader. Bulletpoint 2 shows you that you assume that old coins will steal the show again which is a bias set up by CT as always.
Before I get to bulletpoint 4, let’s point out bulletpoint 5. Right now, if you want to long AI, most obvious bet would be OpenAI. There are no OpenAI stocks however (not tradeable on nasdaq) and I predict that once tradfi deploys capital during this cycle, intern zoomer quant traders will tell their bosses that Worldcoin could be a good proxy bet on OpenAI as the token is already tradable. If it’s not boomer funds creating this narrative, I’m pretty sure we will circlejerk around this on CT. It fits the bulletpoint 5 arguments as well.
Bulletpoint 3 is the high fdv argument which is solely useless at some point. Fdv only matters when it’s a bearmarket and no liquidity. When the circulating supply is so low, the price is easily manipulative. Even though WLD has high unlocks, you have to price in the frontrun capabilities of other rich individuals / funds / vcs / tradfi if an x amount is already unlocked.
For example: I bought a shitload at 1 usd. Why? Because assuming that 10 billion tokens would be unlocked right now (total supply), it would have a market cap of 10 billion which is nothing in comparison to fdvs in a bullrun (Solana reached almost 100 billion in a likely tinier cycle than the upcoming one). Even though that’s not the case and most of it are vested. The ones that do get unlocked are even locked in the DAO and not free to trade. The realistic fdv in that case is way lower if you take this into consideration.
All in all, I think Sam Altman has the ingredients to be a main character in itself. Not necessarily in crypto: I’m talking about outside as well. His personal background is a bullish thing as well but I will refrain from explaining this due to the backlash that it could potentially create.
Anyway, right now price is sitting at 1.60 usd but as I said earlier, I bought a shitload at 1 usd so we will see where it goes.
Zoomeroracle.
Good analysis